Forecasting the world in 2018

2018全球可能发生的大事
时间:2018-01-12 单词数:6540

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导读:2018年伊始,新的一年里,全球的政治、经济、文体等方面会发生哪些大事呢?FT记者、专栏作家在此为大家做出了他们的预测。

2018全球可能发生的大事_英语新闻

Will Trump trigger a trade war with China?

特朗普会发动美中贸易战吗?

Yes. In 2018 President Trump will deliver on some of his protectionist campaign rhetoric by taking punitive actions against China. The most likely triggers for action will be official reports that the Trump administration has commissioned into China’s alleged theft of intellectual property, and its subsidised production of steel and aluminium.

会。2018年,美国总统特朗普将通过对中国采取惩罚性行动,来兑现他在竞选时许下的部分保护主义诺言。最可能的触发因素将是特朗普政府委托的、对中国涉嫌窃取知识产权的官方调查报告,以及中国补贴钢铁和铝生产的行为。

The president, spurred on by his trade team, is likely to order retaliatory measures, including tariffs. Whether that marks the first shot in a trade war will depend on how China reacts. A Chinese decision to impose retaliatory tariffs, or to take America to the World Trade Organization, will signal the opening of hostilities.

在其贸易团队的敦促下,特朗普可能会下令采取报复性措施,其中包括征收惩罚性关税。此举是否会标志着贸易战打响第一枪,将取决于中国如何反应。如果中国决定征收报复性关税,或者把美国告上世贸组织(WTO),将标志着敌对状态的开始。

Will Theresa May remain prime minister in 2018?

2018年特里萨.梅会继续担任英国首相吗?

Yes. Mrs May lost most of her authority with the bungled snap election. But the past few months have been kinder. Sealing a Brexit divorce deal has ensured short-term job security.

会。梅因为失算的提前选举而失去了大部分权威。但过去几个月情况对她较为有利。敲定退欧离婚协议,确保了她的饭碗短期无忧。

So until Brexit is formally complete in 2019, or an appealing alternative emerges, the Conservative party will keep her where she is. Remainers and Leavers alike wish to avoid a civil war that would be sparked by moving against her. What was thought to be an unsustainable position is proving surprisingly sustainable.

因此直到2019年英国退欧正式完成(或者另一种更吸引人的替代方案出现)前,保守党将让她继续坐在首相位置上。留欧派和退欧派都希望避免因反对她而引发内战。事实将证明,曾经被人们认为是坐不长的位置,意外地能够坐久。

Will a stable and liquid bitcoin futures market develop?

会建立起稳定、流动性较强的比特币期货市场吗?

No. One way it could play out: after a tentative start involving lots of trading stops, bitcoin futures will slowly begin to attract institutional money. Commodity Futures Trading Commission positioning data will reflect the extraordinary long bias that exists for the product among money managers.

不会。事情可能会这样发展:在一次试运营(其间出现多次交易停止)后,比特币期货将慢慢开始吸引机构资金。美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的持仓数据将反映出资金管理公司对该产品存在的长期偏见。

As the huge cost of rolling futures positions becomes self-evident, longs will complain ever more loudly about routine divergences around settlement time. Just as a senate hearing is being scheduled to investigate potential manipulation of the market, futures prices will fall below spot, initiating a sell-off.

随着减仓的巨额成本变得不言自明,多头将越来越大声地抱怨围绕结算时间的例行分歧。就在参议院计划举行听证会调查潜在的市场操纵行为时,比特币期货价格将跌破现货价格,引发抛售。

Will impeachment proceedings begin against Donald Trump?

唐纳德.特朗普会遭遇弹劾程序吗?

Yes - just. Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives in the November midterm elections. Though they will not take charge until January 2019, they will waste no time preparing the House Judiciary paperwork. Mr Trump will label it a “witch hunt”.

勉强会。民主党将在11月中期选举中重新赢得对众议院的控制权。尽管他们要到2019年1月才能掌控众议院,但他们将马上开始为众议院司法委员会启动弹劾做文书方面的准备。特朗普将称此举为“政治迫害”。

But another year of his surreal presidency makes it all but inevitable Democrats will campaign on a pledge to hold him to account. Whatever Robert Mueller’s investigation unearths before then is unlikely to turn enough Republicans against him.

但在特朗普怪诞的总统任期又持续了一年之后,民主党将几乎不可避免地展开造势活动,誓要让特朗普承担责任。在此之前,无论罗伯特.米勒(Robert Mueller)的调查发现了什么,都不可能让足够多的共和党人倒戈反对特朗普。

No. Football punditry is a mug’s game. Better to have the benefit of hindsight. There have been 20 previous World Cups. Of those, Brazil (five titles) and Germany (four), are regular contenders. Home advantage helps, with host nations winning the trophy six times. But next year’s festival of football is being held in Russia, which has the lowest-ranked team in the tournament.

会是除巴西、德国和西班牙之外的国家捧得大力神杯吗?

Will a nation other than Brazil, Germany or Spain win the World Cup?

不会。傻子才会去预测足球比赛的结果。最好是作事后诸葛亮。目前已经举办过20届世界杯。其中,巴西(5次捧杯)和德国(4次捧杯)是决赛常客。主场优势有所帮助,东道国赢得了6次奖杯。但是明年的世界杯将在俄罗斯举行,而这位东道主在参赛队伍中排名垫底。

Will Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi try any more unorthodox economic experiments?

印度总理纳伦德拉.莫迪会尝试更多非正统的经济试验吗?

Yes. Mr Modi’s overnight ban on using high-value bank notes was a big shock, and seriously disrupted the economy. But it delivered rich political rewards, bolstering the premier’s image as a decisive leader willing to take tough action against corruption.

会。莫迪一夜之间废除大面额纸币的做法令人震惊,严重扰乱了印度经济。但此举带来了丰厚的政治回报,支撑了莫迪作为愿意采取严厉措施打击腐败的果决领导人的形象。

With the next general elections due in 2019, Mr Modi will be tempted to deliver one more big bang to dazzle voters. Watch out for dramatic action against wealthy individuals holding properties in others’ names to hide their ownership.

面临2019年的下一届大选,莫迪很有可能想拿出另一项轰动性措施来博取选民的支持。当心,他可能会对那些为了隐藏资产而以他人名义持有房产的富人采取重大行动。

Will Emmanuel Macron secure a commitment from German chancellor Angela Merkel on a eurozone budget?

埃马纽埃尔.马克龙会得到德国总理安格拉.默克尔对欧元区预算的承诺吗?

No. Ms Merkel may accept a small eurozone investment fund, but it will fall short of the French president’s ambitions. Mr Macron wants a “road map” to a budget equivalent to several percentage points of eurozone output, supervised by a finance minister, all to absorb economic shocks. Ms Merkel is inclined to acquiesce, but she has emerged politically weakened from federal elections and will be unable to impose such a decision on her largely sceptical public.

不会。默克尔可能会接受一支规模较小的欧元区投资基金,但这满足不了这位法国总统的雄心。马克龙想要的是“路线图”,指明如何实现一份相当于欧元区经济产出一定百分点的预算,由一名财政部长监督,完全用于缓冲经济震荡。默克尔想要答应,但她在联邦选举后政治地位受到削弱,因此无法勉强基本上持怀疑态度的德国民众接受这样一个决定。

来源:爱语吧爱语吧作者:郑大远

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