The Syrian War Is Actually Many Wars

几分钟带你读懂叙利亚的n场战争
时间:2018-04-17 单词数:12190

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导读:最近叙利亚战争已经成为人们茶余饭后的讨论热点,事实上这个国家近些年来就没有怎么太平过,今天我们花几分钟时间来了解下历史上叙利亚发生过的几场战争。

几分钟带你读懂叙利亚的n场战争 _英语新闻

The Middle East is a “troubled place,” President Donald Trump said Friday night as he described his decision to use America’s “righteous power” in a retaliatory attack against government targets in Syria following a suspected chemical attack there.

中东是“祸水”,总统唐纳德.特朗普周五晚上形容美国使用“正义力量”对叙利亚政府目标进行报复打击时说,此前该国涉嫌发生了化武袭击。

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad seems to have won the civil war in his country—but that doesn’t mean peace is coming. In fact, the conflict seems to be escalating—fueled by the many outside powers who have joined the Syrian battlefield with interests of their own.

叙利亚总统巴沙尔.阿萨德貌似赢得内战,但和平并未到来。事实上,冲突看起来在升级,众多有自身利益的外部势力踏足叙利亚战场。

“If you look at the literature on civil wars, it tends to suggest that the more foreign powers involved, the more difficult it is for a civil war to end—because most of those powers aren’t willing to quit until either they are exhausted or their claims and desires have been met,” said Christopher Phillips, author of the book The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East. “And because a lot of them are backing proxies, the cost isn’t necessarily that high.”

“你查查内战文献,越多外部势力介入,内战就越难以结束,因为除非实力耗尽或诉求和愿望得到满足,这些势力不愿退出,”《叙利亚之战:新中东的国际对手》作者克里斯托弗.菲利普斯说。“因为许多事背后的代理人,代价未必很高。”

Over the seven years of Syria’s war, it has sucked in numerous other countries, who have attempted to shape the conflict with every tool from bombing to mercenaries to special operators to weapons shipments to money. The war has grown ever more complicated and more deadly over time, and Syria’s future is now largely being determined outside of its borders. Who is fighting in Syria now, and why?

叙利亚七年战争,将众多国家裹挟其中,这些国家尽其所能去塑造这场冲突,从轰炸到雇佣兵,从特种部队到运送武器和钱财。战争日益复杂,死伤与日俱增,叙利亚的未来如今基本由边境之外的那些国家决定。现在谁在叙利亚打仗,为何而战?

The United States of America

美国

The United States is in Syria mainly because of ISIS. At a recent event in Washington, the U.S. envoy to the anti-ISIS coalition Brett McGurk spelled this out: “We are in Syria to fight ISIS. That is our mission and our mission isn’t over, and we’re going to complete that mission.” More recently, Secretary of Defense James Mattis told Congress that the United States was not there to take sides in the broader civil war.

美国来到叙利亚,主要因为伊斯兰国。在华盛顿举办最近一场活动上,美国反伊斯兰国联军特使布雷特.麦克格克宣称:“我们在叙利亚打击伊斯兰国。这是我们的使命,使命还没有结束,我们将完成任务。”最近,国防部长詹姆斯.马蒂斯对国会说,美国并非在叙利亚日益扩大的内战中支持某一方。

But it is also pursuing other interests there—including containing Iran’s influence, and also punishing the use of chemical weapons. “The United States has ... pursued [its interests] with different importance in different emphasis at different times,” Phillips said. “And that’s one of the reasons why U.S. policy has been largely unsuccessful.”

但美国也在该国谋求其他利益,包括遏制伊朗影响力,还惩罚使用化学武器。“美国……在不同时期有不同重点,”菲利普斯说。“这是美国政策一直不太成功的原因之一。”

Prior to the rise of ISIS in 2014, the United States generally sought to contain the conflict, as efforts at international diplomacy failed to resolve it. The Obama administration advocated for Assad to step aside, but was reluctant to send weapons or funds to the rebels opposing him, out of fear that they would fall into the hands of Islamists and radical jihadists among them.

2014年伊斯兰国兴起前,美国主要想制止冲突,因为国际外交努力并不奏效。奥巴马政府支持阿萨德下台,但不愿出枪、出钱让反对派反对阿萨德,理由是担心这些钱物会落入他们之中的伊斯兰分子和极端圣战者手中。

In 2012, Obama also famously set a “red line” regarding chemical weapons, saying that their use would change his calculus on U.S. strategy there. But when Assad used sarin gas on civilians in 2013, Obama opted, instead of using force, for an agreement with Russia to destroy Assad’s stockpiles of chemical weapons. The U.S. started bombing Syria for the first time a year later, hitting not regime targets but targets associated with ISIS. It has continued bombing ever since.

2012年,大家都知道,奥巴马划定了化武“红线”,表示使用化武会改变美国人的战略计划。但阿萨德2013年对平民使用沙林毒气时,奥巴马选择与俄罗斯达成协议,摧毁阿萨德的化武库而没有动武。当年晚些时候,美国首次开始轰炸叙利亚,但并未袭击振全目标,袭击的是与伊斯兰国有关的目标,此后轰炸一直没停。

President Trump recently said the U.S. would leave Syria “very soon”—even as his military advisers were planning to send additional troops. By the time he spoke, the U.S. presence in the country had grown to some 2,000 troops; news reports say Trump wants them out within six months.

特朗普总统最近表示,美国会“很快”离开叙利亚,虽然他的军事顾问准备增兵。他说想撤军时,美国在叙利亚士兵增加到约2000人,有报道称特朗普想让他们在六个月内离开。

Then came the suspected chemical attack of last weekend, to which Trump retaliated with strikes against the regime, as he did to a similar attack last year. This means the United States has once again expanded its mission beyond counterterrorism.

仅接着是上周末的嫌疑化武袭击,特朗普作为报复打击阿萨德政权,他去年也发动过类似袭击。这意味着美国再次超出反恐,扩大了在叙利亚的使命。

Europe

欧洲

European countries like France and Britain are also in Syria because of ISIS. These countries’ policies have hewed largely to those of the United States—including, for the first time on Friday, participating in retaliatory attacks against Assad’s alleged use of chemical weapons—though the difference is that Europe is also grappling with the refugee crisis Syria has produced. The crisis has altered political dynamics on the continent, helping fuel electoral successes for far-right parties that oppose immigration.

法国和英国等欧洲国家也因为伊斯兰国来到叙利亚。这些国家的政策基本同美国步调一致,包括周五首次参加对阿萨德涉嫌使用化学武器的报复攻击,但不同的是,欧洲还受困于叙利亚冲突滋生的难民危机。危机改变了欧洲大陆的政治格局,让反对移民的极右翼政党获得选举成功。

“To face these threats, what we need is to stabilize Syria, and to stabilize we need a credible political transition,” Gerard Araud, the French ambassador to Washington, said this week. “The goal of the West should be political engagement with Russia, Turkey, [and] Iran with a view of political transition.” Both France and the U.K. joined the U.S. military action against Assad’s latest alleged use of chemical weapons.

“面对这些威胁,我们需要让叙利亚稳定下来,我们需要一个可行的政治更迭,”法国驻美大使吉拉德.阿罗德本周说。“西方的目标是与俄国、土耳其和伊朗进行政治接触,旨在实现政治转轨。”法国和英国都参与了对阿萨德最近涉嫌使用化武的军事行动。

Russia

俄罗斯

Russia is in Syria to protect the Assad regime from rebels it sees as terrorists, and project influence in the Middle East. Its military intervention in September 2015 ensured Assad would not only reverse his losses, but regain much of Syria. America’s scattershot approach to Syrian policy helped, as did the metastatic spread of ISIS that created a common enemy for both the pro- and anti-Assad camps.

俄罗斯来到叙利亚为的是保护阿萨德政权免遭叛军颠覆,他们将叛军视作恐怖分子,俄罗斯还准备在中东投射其影响力。2015年9月开始的军事干预确保阿萨德不仅止损,而且翻了盘,重新掌控了叙利亚大部分地区。美国漫无目标的叙利亚政策也帮了忙,伊斯兰国的癌瘤扩散为支持阿萨德和反对阿萨德阵营创造了共同敌人。

Russia’s relations with the Syrian regime date back to the Cold War. Syria is home to the only Russian naval base on the Mediterranean (in Tartous). But those considerations aside, Russia is also genuinely concerned about the growth of Islamist groups that have emerged in other Arab countries where a strongman has been replaced by chaos. Perhaps most important from its point of view, though, is that the Syrian conflict shows the world that Russia is back.

俄罗斯与叙利亚政权的关系要追溯到冷战时期。叙利亚是俄国在地中海唯一海军基地(塔尔图斯),除了这些考量外,俄罗斯也真心关切伊斯兰主义集团的兴起,后者在其他阿拉伯国家同样发生,强人领袖被混乱取代。可能从他自己的眼光看,叙利亚冲突向世界昭示着俄国回来了。

“It’s very important for [Russian President Vladimir Putin] to use Syria as a platform to project Russian power—and give the impression that just as the Soviet Union was a major player in the Middle East, so is post-Soviet Russia,” Phillips said. Indeed, if there is an indispensable power in Syria it is Russia.

“普京把叙利亚当成投射俄罗斯实力的一个平台,这对他这很重要,考虑到苏联曾是中东的主要玩家,后苏联时代的俄国也是如此,”菲利普斯说。实话实说,如果说叙利亚有一只不可或缺的力量,那就是俄罗斯。

Moscow has close relations with virtually all of the major actors in the conflict except the United States: Iran, Syria, Turkey, and Israel. It is playing an increasing role in brokering some kind of an understanding between Israel and Iran on what type of Iranian presence in Syria Israel will tolerate, Ofer Zalzberg, a senior analyst for Israel/Palestine at the International Crisis Group, told me. “My analysis is that the more these incidents [in which Israel responds inside Syria with its military to Iranian actions] will become frequent ... Russia [will move] into an increasingly active position,” he said. It is not clear, though, that Russia has the influence to persuade Assad to stop using chemical weapons on his own people.

莫斯科和冲突中除美国外的各主要玩家都有密切关系:伊朗、叙利亚、土耳其和以色列。伊朗在叙利亚保持何种存在以色列可以接受,斡旋这一问题,俄罗斯发挥越来越重要的作用。国际危机组织以色列/巴勒斯坦高级分析师欧福.扎尔兹伯格告诉我:”我的分析是,这些发生的越是频繁,即以色列在叙利亚境内对伊朗行动作出回应,俄罗斯会发挥越来越积极的作用。“但尚不清楚俄罗斯是否有能力劝说阿萨德不再对本国人民使用化武。

Iran

伊朗

Iran is in Syria to protect the Assad regime, and also to use its proxies to menace its archenemy Israel from a neighboring country. Syria has been an Iranian ally since Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, and was the only Arab state to support Iran during its brutal war with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the 1980s. But loyalty aside, Syria also is of strategic value to Iran, because it acts as a buffer against any military action by Israel or others from its west, as well as an outpost through which it can arm and supply Hezbollah to put pressure on Israel and contain its military actions in the region.

伊朗来叙利亚是为了保护阿萨德政权,也为了借用代理人威胁主要敌人、叙利亚邻国以色列。叙利亚自1979年伊朗发生伊斯兰革命以来,一直是伊朗盟国,也是在八十年代残酷的两伊战争中唯一支持伊朗的国家。但除去忠诚,叙利亚对伊朗也具有战略价值,因为叙利亚是以色列或其他西方国家采取军事行动的缓冲地,也是伊朗武装和供给真主党给以色列施压并遏制地区军事行动的前哨。

“[Iran] concluded very early on in the uprising in Syria that it must stand by Assad and it must stand by the regime,” Phillips said. Iran, along with Syria’s other neighbors, both allies and adversaries, will have to deal with the consequences of the conflict long after the West and Moscow find themselves preoccupied with other crises.

“伊朗在叙利亚起义发生一开始就坚决站在阿萨德一边支持其政权,”菲利普说。伊朗和叙利亚的其他邻国,或盟国或对手,将不得不在西方和莫斯科忙于其他危机后长期承受这场冲突带来的后果。

Saudi Arabia

沙特

Saudi Arabia is in Syria—primarily by financing the rebellion—to oppose Iran. It funded the Syrian opposition precisely because Iran, its main regional rival, had dug in. In the rebellion against Assad’s minority sect by Saudi Arabia’s Sunni coreligionists, Saudi Arabia saw an opportunity to turn Syria from a pro-Iranian state into a not-pro-Iranian state. Turkey and Qatar, too, saw in the uprising an opportunity to transform Syria into a friendlier state, and funded groups with links to the Muslim Brotherhood.

沙特来到叙利亚主要通过资助反对派来反对伊朗。它资助叙利亚反对派,主要因为其主要地区对手伊朗涉足。阿萨德少数派,沙特认为与自己同是逊尼派的叛军,他们反对阿萨德阿拉维少数派,有望将叙利亚从亲伊朗国转变为非亲伊朗国。土耳其和卡塔尔也认为叛乱有望将叙利亚转变为更友好的国家,因此支持与穆兄会有关的组织。

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, Qatar’s foreign minister, told reporters in Washington Thursday that Assad was a “war criminal” who “deserves to be prosecuted.” He called for a diplomatic process that would lead to a power transition—an idea that has repeatedly been floated, but which Assad, who has won back much of the country, doesn’t have much incentive to pursue.

卡塔尔外长周四在华盛顿对记者说,阿萨德是个“战犯”,“应该被起诉”。他呼吁采用外交手段推动权力更迭,这一想法再三被提及,但收复失地的阿萨德却没有理由推动之。

来源:爱语吧爱语吧作者:郑大远

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