Analysis: Trump wins the first round in US-China trade war?

美智库专家发文称美中贸易战中特朗普第一轮获胜,是舆论造势还是另有说辞?
时间:2018-05-15 单词数:6730

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导读:首轮美中贸易谈判,是美中之间在贸易摩擦方面实现开放对话的重要契机。 特朗普总统明智地看到了一个联合、无缝对接的中美关系有助于美国在正面临缓和局势的朝美关系中获得最大的政策效益。 

Trump

Two books written by President Trump in 2000 and 2015 help to explain why he has been remarkably confident in instructing two Cabinet members and his three closest White House economic advisors for two days of talks in Beijing.

特朗普在2000年和2015年撰写的两本书帮助解释了为什么他对派往北京参加为期两天会谈的贸易谈判代表,即他的两个内阁成员和三个最亲密的白宫经济顾问,会如此充满信心。

The tactic has succeeded and may have resulted in an initial Trump victory, without provoking a widely dreaded “trade war,” said a US expert specialized in Chinese affairs.

计划成功了,这可能导致了特朗普首次获胜,而没有引起广泛恐惧的“贸易战”。 一位研究中国事务的美国专家这样评价道。

This result commented by Michael Pillsbury, a senior US economic analyst and advisor for China’s affairs, soon aroused a heated discussion among Chinese and Western scholars. Many say the result is as far achievable as the US think tank assessed.

此番评论由美国驻华事务顾问兼经济分析学家白邦瑞一经发出,即刻引发国内外学者热烈讨论。众声喧哗中,诸多学者认为美智库专家所估成果难以称其为成就赫赫。

The two biggest reasons for the so-called success are not so secret: Clearly, President Trump does not want his Chinese counterpart, to feel disappointed because he needs Xi’s help now more than ever as the final phases of the North Korean summit are negotiated. China can help close the deal on the date, the place and the initial terms to which North Korea’s chairman, Kim Jong-un, will agree. So, this is the most important time for an open dialogue between the U.S. and China over trade friction. The president wisely calculated that a joint, seamless China-America approach now will add to the effect of his "maximum profit" policy on North Korea that are approaching a moderate situation.

所谓的成功之因并不神秘:显然,特朗普总统并不希望中国对他失望,因为在美朝会谈的最后阶段,他非常需要习主席的帮助,他现在比以往任何时候都更需要谈判。 有关朝美会谈同意的日期、地点和条款,中国可以帮助双方实现这一诉求。 因此,这是美中之间在贸易摩擦方面实现开放对话的重要契机。 特朗普总统明智地看到了一个联合、无缝对接的中美关系有助于美国在正面临缓和局势的朝美关系中获得最大的政策效益。

The other reason for the result — a much bigger one — is to tactfully play down the boldness of President Trump’s demands for dramatic Chinese concessions that may challenge some polices made in China’s economic system. If you consider the reverse image, it’s like a Chinese delegation of cabinet secretaries arriving in Washington and giving the U.S. two years to amend our Constitution and to give up our free-market economy.

另一个原因---一个更大的原因---是其巧妙地淡化特朗普对中国巨大让步的要求,这将可能挑战中国经济体系的政策。 如果你换位思考,就像一个中国代表团抵达华盛顿,给美国两年时间修改宪法,放弃我们的自由市场经济。

This is not a new idea that his advisers recently pushed on him; President Trump’s ideas about China date back nearly two decades.

这个想法并不是特朗普从他的经济顾问们那里最新得到的,早在近二十年前这位总统就对中国产生了想法。

Trump’s concern with China dates back to a book he published in 2000 that stated, “in the long term China is our biggest challenge.” He returned to this theme in another book he published in 2015 called “Crippled America,” where he argued that, “As a matter of global American global policy, we want to take away China’s advantages.” He then laid out how to persuade China to do that: “When dealing with China, we need to tell them its bad business to take advantage of your best customer.”

特朗普对中国的关注可追溯到他2000年发表的一本书, “从长远来看,中国是我们最大的挑战。” 他在2015年出版的另一本书-《跛脚的美国》-中再次回归了这个主题。 在他看来, “对于美国全球政策来说,我们希望搞掉中国的优势。” 他接着阐述了如何说服中国这样做: 在与中国打交道时,我们需要告诉中国,利用你最好的客户是个坏主意。 ”

Unfortunately, someone in the president’s delegation or the Chinese side has revealed to American reporters in Beijing what some of the president’s negotiating demands were. Still, the instruction may have ensured in the long run that the talks have succeeded by telling the Chinese about exactly what President Trump wants.

不幸的是,总统的代表团或中方的人在北京向美国记者透露了总统的一些谈判要求。 不过,长期来看,这一指示可能已经确保了会谈的成功,这正是特朗普总统所希望的。

Chinese side released a curt comment that “big differences” remained with a partial success has been reached on the negotiating table as the U.S. government delegation headed out of town a few hours later.

中方在美国政府代表团离京几小时后,发布了一份简短评论,称美中谈判取得部分成果,双方依然存在“大分歧”。

It is reported that the American demands included fundamental revisions in how the Chinese leadership manages foreign trade and its economy, including purchasing vastly more American exports in order to reduce at least $200 billion from the total U.S. trade deficit with China by 2020.

据报道,美国需求包括中国领导层如何管理外贸和其经济政策方面的根本修订,包括购买更多的美国出口,以便在2020年前减少美国对华至少200亿美元的贸易逆差。

The U.S. team previously released a White House statement acclaiming that the talks would be “frank.”

美国此前曾公开白宫的声明,称其为"坦率"的会谈。

来源:爱语吧爱语吧作者:CNS喻贵良

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