China has its role as a global powerhouse in comsumer market

中国将成为名副其实的世界消费市场
时间:2018-07-01 单词数:3600

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导读:沃尔夫:随着中国从“世界工厂”向消费市场转变,中国会为全球企业提供一个规模巨大、增长迅速的消费市场。

中国将成为名副其实的世界消费市场_ 双语新闻

China is shifting its growth model to one relying more on consumption and less on investment. It is also urbanising, ageing and experiencing dynamic technological change. It should therefore offer the world’s businesses a gigantic, rapidly growing, but challenging, consumer market as it evolves from being the “workshop of the world”.

中国正在将其增长模式转变为更多依赖消费、更少依赖投资的模式。中国还在城市化、老龄化,并经历颇有活力的技术变革。因此,随着中国从“世界工厂”向消费市场转变,中国应会为全球企业提供一个规模巨大、增长迅速、但具有挑战性的消费市场。

Assume, instead, less optimistically, that China’s consumption share remained at a mere 40 per cent of GDP. Assume, too, that, after 2023, the growth of China’s nominal GDP (in dollars) falls to a mere 6 per cent, while that of the US remains at 4 pe cent. Then China’s aggregate consumption will still reach 55 per cent of US levels by 2027. Even under these considerably less favourable assumptions, this will be a hugely important market.

相反,不那么乐观的话,假设中国的消费占GDP的比重保持在40%。再假设,2023年以后,中国名义GDP(以美元计算)的增长率仅为6%,而美国仍为4%。那么,到2027年,中国的消费总额仍将达到美国的55%。即使在这些大为不利的假设下,中国也将成为一个非常重要的市场。

By 2027, 22 per cent of the Chinese population (324 million people) will be over 60. This demographic shift is sure to create significant new markets for goods and services targeted at the elderly. Meanwhile, the young adults of 2027 will virtually all be from one-child families and familiar with the digitally-enabled and relatively prosperous China of today. They are likely to be considerably more demanding than their elders.

到2027年,中国有22%的人口(3.24亿人)将超过60岁。这一人口结构的转变必将为面向老年人的商品和服务创造新的重要市场。与此同时,2027年的年轻成年人将几乎全部来自独生子女家庭,并且对当今数字技术发达、相对繁荣的中国非常熟悉。他们的要求可能会比他们的长辈高得多。

China’s astonishingly dynamic “sharing economy” — already visible in the booming market for shared bicycles and cars for hire — will expand further, reducing demand for outright ownership.

中国具有惊人活力的“共享经济”——在蓬勃发展的共享自行车市场和租车市场已表现得很明显——将进一步扩大,减少对完全所有权的需求。

As elsewhere in the world, Chinese consumers will also increasingly demand and obtain personalised goods and services. In addition, argues the report, the pattern of consumption is likely to be split between those seeking a more traditionally Chinese lifestyle and those with a preference for a more westernised way of life.

与世界其他地方一样,中国消费者也将日益要求并获得个性化的商品和服务。此外,该报告指出,寻求更传统的中国生活方式的人群和偏好更西式生活方式的人群可能在消费模式上产生分化。

The dramatic development of China’s digital economy will increasingly weave together online and offline worlds. Hema, for example, is a start-up, backed by the Alibaba Group. As I witnessed during a recent visit to Alibaba’s headquarters in Hangzhou, a Hema store is a mixture of supermarket, restaurant, distribution centre and online store. I saw a possible future — and it worked.

中国数字经济的迅猛发展将日益将线上世界和线下世界交织在一起。例如,盒马鲜生(Hema)是一家由阿里巴巴支持的初创企业。我在最近一次访问阿里巴巴杭州总部时看到,盒马鲜生的店铺是集超市、餐厅、配送中心和线上商店于一体的产物。我看到了一个可能的未来——而它行之有效。

The plausible assumption, however, is that over the next decade a mass consumer society will emerge in China. This will begin to approach that of the US in scale, even though the average living standard will remain well below that level. Moreover, Chinese companies are emerging as world leaders in this technology-enabled economy.

然而,看似合理的假设是,未来10年,中国将出现一个大众消费型社会。这个社会的规模将开始接近美国,不过,其平均生活水平仍将远低于美国。此外,中国企业正在成为这个技术驱动下的经济当中的世界领导者。

A vast middle class of people with an income affording more than the basic essentials of existence, will also emerge. These consumers will be not only be more demanding, but will seek goods and services that enrich their lives.

一个收入水平超过其基本生存需求的庞大的中产阶层也将出现。这些消费者不仅要求更高,而且还会寻找让自己的生活更丰富多彩的商品和服务。

来源:华尔街日报爱语吧作者:CNS喻贵良

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