Trump Starts a Trade War, but the Path to Success Remains Unclear

特朗普能带美国打赢贸易战吗?特朗普能带美国打赢贸易战吗?
时间:2018-07-11 单词数:5470

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导读:特朗普总统曾说,贸易战“很容易打赢”。现在,随着他在全球与盟友和对手同样开战,人们要问,他是否有取得自己想得到的结果的计划,会不会只是在没有解决方案的情况下走向了一场代价高昂、徒劳无益的冲突。

特朗普能带美国打赢贸易战吗?_最新英语新闻

WASHINGTON — The United States and China hit each other with punishing tariffs on Friday as the two nations tipped into a long-feared trade war that is only expected to escalate.

华盛顿——美国和中国上周五开始向对方征收惩罚性关税,两国步入了人们担心已久、预计只会不断升级的贸易战。

President Trump has said that trade wars are “easy to win.” Now, as he opens a global skirmish with allies and adversaries alike, the question is whether he has a plan to achieve the results he wants or whether he is heading into a costly and futile clash without resolution.

特朗普总统曾说,贸易战“很容易打赢”。现在,随着他在全球与盟友和对手同样开战,人们要问,他是否有取得自己想得到的结果的计划,会不会只是在没有解决方案的情况下走向了一场代价高昂、徒劳无益的冲突。

The president appears to be betting that threatening trading partners like China, the European Union, Mexico and Canada with tariffs will eventually force them to bend to the United States.

总统赌的似乎是用征收关税来威胁中国、欧盟、墨西哥和加拿大等贸易伙伴,将迫使它们最终听从美国。

His strategy is being buoyed by a strong economy that is giving Mr. Trump more latitude to impose tariffs that might otherwise pose too much risk. Job growth was strong in June, according to a new government report, as employers added 213,000 net new jobs and the unemployment rate rose as more people entered the labor market and began looking for work. Manufacturing job growth was particularly robust.

美国强劲的经济有助于特朗普的战略,目前的经济让征收关税的做法可能不会带来太大的风险,从而给了特朗普更大的征收关税的自由。一份新的政府报告显示,美国6月份的就业增长强劲,雇主净增了21.3万个新工作岗位,随着更多的人进入劳动力市场寻找工作,失业率也有所上升。制造业的就业增长尤其强劲。

Those numbers are backward-looking, but there is little reason to think that the initial batch of tariffs will knock the entire economy off course. The $34 billion worth of Chinese goods subject to tariffs, and an equivalent retaliation by China, is tiny compared to the $20 trillion United States economy. Global stock markets largely shrugged off the trade war on Friday.

这些数字是后瞻性的,但几乎没有理由认为,首批关税将使整个经济偏离增长的轨道。对价值340亿美元的中国商品征收关税,并遭到中国对同等规模的美国商品进行报复,与美国20万亿美元的经济规模相比微不足道。全球股市上周五基本上没有理会这场贸易战。

But the tariffs are still inflicting pain on some industries in particular, including farmers and small manufacturers who have long supported Mr. Trump. And with little sign of a negotiated resolution between the United States and China — or any other trading partner — the conflict threatens to escalate, eventually affecting hundreds of billions of dollars of additional products.

但这些关税仍将给某些行业带来痛苦,尤其是长期支持特朗普的农场主和小型制造商。几乎没有任何迹象表明美国与中国——或与任何其他贸易伙伴——在通过谈判解决问题,这场冲突升级的危险很大,最终可能影响到数千亿美元的更多商品。

“Trump’s soundest argument in his election campaign was that he would not waste American lives and treasure in pointless wars of choice,” Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, wrote in March in an op-ed article. “His launching a trade war would prove, however, to be his economic Afghanistan — costly, open-ended, and fruitless.”

“特朗普在竞选时最有力的论点是,他不会在毫无意义的、可打可不打的战争中浪费美国人的生命和财富,”彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)所长亚当.波森(Adam Posen)曾在今年3月的一篇专栏文章中这样写道。“然而,他正在发动的这场贸易战将被证明是他的阿富汗——代价高昂、无限期,而且毫无成果。”

Some of the products involved in earlier phases of the Trump administration’s trade battles offer evidence of how American consumers may eventually be affected.

特朗普政府贸易战早期阶段涉及的一些产品证明了美国消费者最终可能受到怎样的影响。

In January, the president announced new tariffs on imported washing machines. Since then, the price of laundry equipment is up 10 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

1月,总统宣布对进口洗衣机征收新关税。根据美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的数据,从那时起,洗衣设备的价格上涨了10%。

And the administration has either entered or threatened to enter trade wars on multiple fronts at the same time, compounding the risks. A tariff on automobile imports that is in the works, for example, could expand the dollar value of goods the United States places tariffs on by tenfold and set off a new wave of retaliation that endangers companies that export to Europe, Japan, South Korea and elsewhere.

政府已同时在多个战线进行或威胁进行贸易战,从而加剧了风险。例如,计划中对汽车进口征收的关税,可使美国征收关税的商品的美元价值增加十倍,并引发新的报复浪潮,危及出口到欧洲、日本、韩国和其他国家的企业。

Leaders of the Federal Reserve appear concerned that this overlay of risk in the economy could dampen investment spending, according to minutes of a June policy meeting released Thursday. Fed officials “noted that uncertainty and risks associated with trade policy had intensified and were concerned that such uncertainty and risks eventually could have negative effects on business sentiment and investment spending.”

根据周四公布的6月政策会议纪要,美联储的领导人似乎担心,叠加的经济风险可能抑制投资支出。美联储官员“注意到与贸易政策相关的不确定性和风险已经加剧,并担心这种不确定性和风险最终会对商业信心和投资支出产生负面影响”。

The economy appears strong enough to withstand the relatively moderate tariffs that have already been put in place. The question is what will happen if things continue to escalate to eventually encompass hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars worth of goods.

美国经济看起来足够强大,能够承受目前已实施的相对温和的关税。问题是,如果事态继续升级,最终会涉及价值数千亿甚至数万亿美元的商品,将会发生什么。

“If we get up to a trillion dollars in the cross hairs, then that means we’re talking about 25 percent of trade in goods,” Mr. Ikenson said. “People will begin to notice that.”

“如果我们把目标定在一万亿美元,那就意味着我们谈的是25%的货物贸易,”伊肯森说。“人们将开始注意到这一点。”

来源:纽约时报爱语吧作者:penny

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