Trade war with China could lead to recession sooner rather than later

中美贸易战可能引起2020年美国经济大萧条
时间:2018-10-23 单词数:2420

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导读:美国与中国打贸易战,与加拿大和欧洲的经济关系陷入僵局,再加上美联储加息,可能得到的结果是:2020年美国经济出现衰退。

中美贸易战可能引起2020年美国经济大萧条_英语新闻

Take a trade war with China, mix in frosty economic relations with Canada and Europe, add in Federal Reserve rate hikes and here’s what you get: A recession by 2020.

美国与中国打贸易战,并与加拿大和欧洲的经济关系陷入僵局,再加上美联储加息,可能得到的结果是:2020年美国经济出现衰退。

So says Ronald Temple, head of US equity for Lazard Asset Management.

美国理查德资产管理公司主管罗纳德.坦普尔如是说。

He told CNN Business that President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies may lead to a deep slowdown in the economy, particularly because these trade skirmishes coincide with rising interest rates.

他对美国有线电视新闻网商业频道表示,唐纳德.特朗普总统的保护主义政策可能会导致经济大幅放缓,尤其是当这些贸易冲突与不断上升的利率同时发生。

A recession in the near-term is not inevitable, but the risk of one by 2020 has increased substantially in the past few months, Temple said. "Take trade wars off the table and that significantly reduces the risk of recession."

坦普尔说:“短期内出现衰退并非不可避免,但在过去几个月里,美国到2020年出现经济衰退的风险已经大大增加。如果贸易战能谈拢的话,这将会显著降低经济衰退的风险。”

But it’s likely that the United States is overestimating how much China needs to import from America, he said.

但他说,美国可能高估了中国从美国的进口产品。

China has more options than it once did, and the Trump administration’s hardline stance makes a prolonged stalemate more likely.

中国进口产品可以选择的余地比以往更多,而特朗普政府的强硬立场更有可能导致旷日持久的僵局。

The days where we could have a trade agreement where China just buys more US stuff are probably behind us, he said. "It’s difficult to find how China and the United States come to a common middle ground on trade."

他表示:“如果中国可以购买更多美国产品,那么我们可以达成贸易协定,然而这样的日子可能已经过去。现在很难找到中美如何在贸易问题上达成共识。”

Temple said that the United States -- as well as the rest of the world for that matter -- do have legitimate grievances with China, particularly when it comes to China’s intellectual property theft and stringent restrictions on foreign companies doing business there.

坦普尔说,美国以及世界其他国家确实对中国不满,特别是涉及到中国的知识产权盗窃和对外资企业的严格限制。

来源:CNN爱语吧作者:郑大远

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